Intentions are clear
The Iranian government rejected a UN deal that would have Russia and France process Iran’s uranium into fuel rods for nuclear power plant use. This would prevent Iran from processing the uranium further so that it would be powerful enough for nuclear weapons.
China eclipses U.S.
China is now the world’s largest producer of coal, steel and cement. Twenty of the world’s fastest growing cities are all in China. By the end of 2010, Starbucks will have more coffee houses in China than in the U.S.
Lacking support
The UN has been unable to muster much support for the Somalia Transitional Government, as memories of the hostile experience UN peacekeepers had back in the early 1990s are still quite vivid. The current problem the African Union (AU) is having in Mogadishu simply reinforces those memories. The only thing the UN has been able to do is deplore the continuing violence.
Watermelon Marxists
Green on the outside and red on the inside.
A warring mentality
As the U.S. and NATO begin to move more troops into Afghanistan the generals calculate that they can cripple the Taliban and do significant damage to the drug gangs within two years. However, the generals are having a hard time explaining the more difficult and long-term problems to the politicians back home. Unfortunately, Afghanistan is and always has been a mess because the local culture has some peculiar habits that are self-destructive. The problem is that much of Afghanistan, along with most Afghans themselves, cling to a medieval culture where tribal loyalties are paramount, religious beliefs take precedence over rational decision making, and modern technology is treated like some kind of magic, not the result of education and large scale cooperation. This clash of cultures is nothing new, not even for Afghanistan.
The blame game
Efforts to halt the flow of Iranian weapons from Eritrea to Islamic terrorists in Somalia have failed. Threats of UN sanctions apparently do not bother the Eritrean leaders, who just blame everything on the U.S. Similarly, Iran denies any involvement and also lays blame on the U.S.
Pirates go free
The European Union agreed that a Dutch warship in the Gulf of Aden should release the 13 pirates who were captured while attacking a merchant ship. No EU country was willing to prosecute the pirates and the EU was not willing to allow anyone outside the EU to do so either. Efforts to re-establish anti-piracy laws, or at least establish an international anti-piracy court, are going nowhere.
Feeling the power
Chinese leaders are encouraged by the success of their propaganda campaign against India inside and outside China. The campaign began three years ago when India and the U.S. started getting really cozy and China has discovered that the current U.S. leadership is more concerned about offending China’s police state than India, the world’s largest democracy. So China continues to pressure India while using diplomatic pressure to prevent the U.S. from aiding India or exporting certain defensive weapons to Taiwan. China is feeling the power.
Useless sanctions
A recent UN investigation concluded that the North Korean leadership is continuing to export weapons and is using the hard currency that it received to import luxury items for the ruling elite of the communist police state. The UN report detailed North Korea’s use of false documents and the switching of cargo containers to different ships in order to throw off investigators.
Strange bedfellows
The Japanese and Chinese governments have agreed to conduct a joint naval exercise, a first for the two countries. The operation will involve joint search-and-rescue exercises and it is hoped that this will lead to more joint exercises concentrating on humanitarian operations.
National suicide
“If we care about social welfare, we should approve of a situation in which a wealthy nation is willing to engage in a degree of self-sacrifice when the world benefits more than that nation loses.” — Obama’s regulatory czar Cass Sunstein
Just outwait them
Both Chinese and Taiwanese businessmen want closer economic ties between the two countries, but Taiwanese politicians want China to remove some of the thousand ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. The Chinese talk about removing some of the missiles, but so far nothing has been done. Chinese leaders believe that if they wait long enough Taiwan will eventually be theirs.
Up for grabs
The U.S. Navy retired its last non-nuclear aircraft carrier, the USS John F. Kennedy (CV-67), and the Navy is now offering the carrier to any government or non-profit organization that wants to maintain it as a museum ship. The Kennedy is currently docked in Philadelphia and there is much enthusiasm in Boston for taking the carrier, named after a native son, and establishing it as a museum ship. However, the big problem for whoever takes the carrier is money, and lots of it. It will take hundreds of millions to outfit the Kennedy as a museum and maintain it. If there are no takers for the Kennedy then the Navy plans to sink it during a training exercise.
Collapse imminent
South Koreans are expressing their concerns over the deteriorating conditions in North Korea and spending more time discussing how South Korea will handle absorbing those in the North. It has become accepted that the North will eventually collapse into chaos and South Korea will be largely responsible cleaning up the mess. This is not expected to turn out well.
Paranoid lunatic
Hugo Chavez continues to push his belief that the U.S. is using Colombia as a staging area in preparation to invade Venezuela. Many South American politicians think Chavez is nuts, but are too polite and politically astute to criticize anyone who is badmouthing the “Colossus of the North.” The U.S. has long been a favorite punching bag down south and the usual suspect whenever anything goes wrong.
North Korean heir
Chinese officials who deal with the North Korean government report that there is still no official decision on who will succeed the ailing North Korean leader. Military generals and communist party officials are discreetly lining up behind the oldest son who is a playboy, but ruthless and power hungry, and the youngest, who is smart and young enough to be controlled by a committee of older officials, at least for a while. Since there has been no official announcement of who the heir is, if dear leader Kim Jong Il died suddenly, there could be a power struggle that could become very violent. There are reports from Chinese that North Korean officials have made arrangements to establish second homes in China, and are even sending their children and wives there. Defectors report that there is an escape tunnel from the capital to the port of Nampo that would enable officials in an emergency to secretly flee to China by sea.
Wants old LSTs
Peruvian military leaders were quick to note that the U.S. Navy was officially replacing its LSTs with the new San Antonio-class of amphibious ships, so Peruvian officials asked the U.S. to sell them the two Newport-class LSTs that have been out of service but in reserve since 1993. The two LSTs entered service in 1969 and 1971. It will cost Peru less than $100 million to obtain these ships; Peru already has three older LSTs that entered service in the 1950s.
Ill-prepared for war
In late November 2009, the Iranian military conducted a five-day exercise to see how well its air and ground forces could defend against an air attack. The results were not what they expected. Israel has been threatening such an air attack if Iran doesn’t halt its nuclear weapons development. The Iranian exercise had air and air-defense units go through the motions of dealing with a hostile air strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Iranian generals who organized the exercise were surprised at how uncoordinated and ill-prepared their forces were for such an attack. Communications were spotty due to equipment failures and poor training, and weapons didn’t perform as expected. It appears as though the Iranians are victims of their own propaganda because for years they have been announcing new weapons that simply don’t exist.
Only offers censure
Chinese government officials offered to back a UN censure measure against Iran, but nothing stronger. Iran is a major supplier of oil to China, and of growing importance as a trade partner.
Freedom or tyranny?
“There is a time for all things, a time to preach and a time to pray, but those times have passed away. There is a time to fight, and that time has now come.” — Lutheran Pastor Peter Muhlenberg, from a sermon read at Woodstock, Virginia, 1776
Squelching freedom
The Iranian government brought in 20,000 supporters to stage noisy pro-government rallies. Speeches given called for all anti-government leaders to be jailed or killed. Government officials warned that anti-government violence would bring retribution, including imprisonment and death to those wanting to overthrow the religious dictatorship.
Soft on crime
The number of kidnappings of aid workers in Africa has grown, and currently there are about a dozen workers being held for ransom. However, the 230 sailors and their ships being held captive by Somali pirates largely overshadows this. This increase in kidnappings is due mostly to the fact that Western countries rarely use force to recover the captives and usually pay the large ransoms instead, thereby encouraging additional kidnappings.
Adapt and overcome
In Afghanistan the Taliban continue to adapt any new tactics NATO uses for detecting roadside bombs. The recent trend is to rely on more elaborate methods of deception such as wheelbarrows, bicycles and the use of pack animals. These are common throughout rural Afghanistan, especially donkeys. When a loaded donkey, bicycle or wheelbarrow is found in an area with no civilians nearby, the troops tend to be more alert to the possibility of a bomb. Civilians can usually pick up on the fact that a bombing attack is underway, and will clear out if they suspect that a certain donkey is more of a weapon than a beast of burden.
Just wishful thinking?
U.S. and UN officials believe that the current sanctions on North Korea that allow ships at sea and transport aircraft to be searched have put the hurt on North Korea’s weapons export and that this will force the North Koreans to negotiate an end to their nuclear weapons ambitions. This hasn’t happened yet, but there is optimism in the air.
International hide-and-seek
The North Koreans have had to come up with a large array of subterfuges to get around growing restrictions on their use of the international banking system. The North Koreans are still getting weapons out and money back, but they continue to get caught. It’s an international game of hide-and-seek that is hurting the North Korean arms trade, but not really stopping it. A UN report points toward implementing more restrictions on North Korean trade; however, to be really effective this would require lots of cooperation from China where most of the North Korean evasion takes place. It is doubtful that is going to happen any time soon.
Glimpse of America’s future?
Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has been unsuccessful in getting the voters to make him president for life, but he has used his presidential powers to replace thousands of key officials with people selected mainly for their loyalty. Since the government controls so much of the economy, this has had disastrous results. There are increasing power blackouts, and an increasing number of state employees are not getting paid or paid on time. There are increasing shortages of consumer goods and the people are growing ever-more angry.
An embarrassment
Chinese government officials announced that it had rescued the Chinese coal ship and its 25 Chinese sailors off the coast of Somalia. What was not reported was the ransom payment of $3.5 million and the pirates then leaving the ship. The seizing of the ship, despite the presence of Chinese warships and commandos in the area, was an embarrassment for the Chinese government. Little was reported in the government-controlled press about the incident, but chatter on the Internet was less than flattering for the government. This led to the attempt to spin the ransom payment as a military rescue mission.
Women on subs
The U.S. Navy is planning to allow women to serve on submarines. The Naval Academy surveyed its female midshipmen to see how many would want to join the submarine service; about two dozen women were interested in the seven slots available. The Navy is planning to initially allow women on the ballistic missile nuclear subs (SSBNs) mainly because they have sufficient room to provide separate quarters for women.
Exploiting weakness
The Taliban consider the reluctance to hurt civilians to be a major weakness that they exploit as often as possible. To the Taliban this means using civilians as human shields and having weapons moved separately from the gunmen until the last moment. The Taliban know that the American Rules of Engagement prohibit smart bomb attacks on unarmed men. However, the Taliban have a major weakness when it comes to public support because they are hated, and U.S. forces have far superior intelligence collecting capabilities. The headlines about the enemy grabbing the unencrypted video from American UAVs was way overblown by the media because rarely do the bad guys actually have the equipment, or the skill, to tap into those video feeds. This is especially true in backward Afghanistan.
Real patriotism
“Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean stand by the president.” — Theodore Roosevelt
Japanese aircraft carrier
Japan has decided to build a second class of aircraft carriers that are slightly larger and heavier than the current Hyuga-class ships. The first Hyuga entered service in 2009 and the second ship in the class, the Ise, was launched. These 610-foot long, 18,000-ton warships will operate up to 11 helicopters from a full-length flight deck. Although designated a destroyer, it looks very much like an aircraft carrier. While its primary function is anti-submarine warfare, the Hyuga will also give Japan its first real power projection capability since 1945. The Hyuga is the largest warship built in Japan since WWII; East Asian countries still have bad memories about the last time Japan had lots of aircraft carriers.
No to shoddy overhauls
The Chinese Navy has 16 modern Russian warships that were delivered in the 1990s currently in need of midlife overhauls. The Russians offer overhaul services performed in Russian shipyards, but the Chinese want the work done in Chinese shipyards with Russian personnel coming in to train and supervise Chinese shipyard personnel to do most of the work. The Russians are reluctant to do this because they fear that the Chinese just want to get the work done cheaper and steal Russian equipment designs and shipyard techniques. The Chinese want to get the work done right and have noted the often shoddy workmanship done by Russian shipyards when doing overhauls.